Luck or Fate? The Question That Changes How You See Everything
· A story about a priest, an atheist, and a blizzard in Alaska
The following story is adapted from David Foster Wallace’s 2005 Kenyon College commencement speech, “This Is Water.”
Two old friends are sitting in a bar in the remote Alaskan wilderness. Outside, the kind of cold that makes your breath freeze before it leaves your mouth. Inside, the kind of argument that never ends.
One is a priest. The other is an atheist. They are arguing about God — which means, underneath, they are arguing about the same thing everyone argues about after enough drinks in a dark room: does any of this mean anything, or are we just here?
The Blizzard
The atheist leans forward. “Look, it’s not like I haven’t given God a chance. I even tried the prayer thing. It didn’t work.”
The priest raises an eyebrow. “You actually prayed? When?”
“Last month. Got caught away from camp in a blizzard. Fifty below. Couldn’t see my own hands. Totally lost. So I dropped to my knees in the snow and said: ‘God, if you’re real, I’m going to die out here unless you help me.’”
The priest stares at him, baffled. “Well — you’re sitting right here! You’re alive! Clearly God answered your prayer.”
The atheist rolls his eyes. “No. A couple of Inuit hunters came wandering by and showed me the way back to camp.”
The Same Event. Two Completely Different Universes.
This is the part that matters.
Notice: neither man is wrong about what happened. The facts are identical. A man prayed. Hunters appeared. He survived. These events are not in dispute.
What’s in dispute is what the events mean. And that difference — the gap between “God sent those hunters” and “two guys happened to walk by” — is not a gap that evidence can close. It is a gap that lives inside the person looking at the evidence.
The priest sees fate. The atheist sees luck. And each one is so locked into his frame that the other’s interpretation is not just wrong — it is literally invisible.
This Is Not Really About God
It’s about a question that follows you through every important moment of your life:
Was that luck, or was that fate?
You got the job. Was it your resume, or were you supposed to be there?
You met that person. Was it the app algorithm, or something older than algorithms?
You missed the flight. The flight crashed. Luck? Fate? A coin flip that happened to land on the side that lets you keep breathing?
Most people treat this as a philosophical curiosity — something to muse about over drinks, like the two men in the bar. But it is not a curiosity. It is an operating system. The answer you instinctively reach for shapes how you make decisions, how you handle loss, and what you do when the blizzard comes.
Luck Is Not What Happens to You
Here is the thing about luck that most people get wrong: luck itself is not something you control. It is not a skill. It is not a reward. It is weather. It blows through regardless of whether you deserve it.
But catchingluck — that is entirely yours.
Luck is the blizzard clearing for ten minutes. Luck is the two hunters walking that particular path at that particular hour. You did not summon them. You cannot summon them. But whether you are standing up and visible when they pass, or curled in a ball with your face in the snow — that part is on you.
The person who has prepared — who has studied the terrain, kept their gear ready, stayed alert even when exhausted — catches the full weight of the luck when it arrives. They see the hunters. They call out. They follow.
The person who has not prepared sees the same hunters and thinks too late, too far, probably not real. The luck was identical. The harvest was not.
This is why some people seem “lucky” and others don’t. It is not that the universe favors them. It is that when the window opens, they are already standing at the glass.
Fate Is a Beautiful Cage
Fate works differently. If luck is weather, fate is geology — the slow, massive forces underneath everything. The big events. The ones that feel like they were coming for you regardless of what you did.
In the grand scheme, most of life is noise. But every so often, something happens that feels too heavy to be noise. The loss that reshapes you. The meeting that redirects everything. The door that closes and will not open again no matter how hard you push.
Fate is the word we give to these moments. Whether they are truly written in stone or merely feel that way is a question no one can answer — because no one has seen the stone. It is not revealed. It might not exist. But the feeling of it is real, and the feeling demands a response.
And here is where it gets interesting: what matters is not whether fate is real. What matters is your attitude toward it.
You can accept it. Sit with the weight of it. Let it shape you without breaking you. This is endurance — and people who endure what feels fated come out the other side with a depth that cannot be faked.
Or you can ignore it. Refuse the script. Pick the road less travelled. Say I don’t care what was written — I am writing something else.
The Cage You Can’t See the Walls Of
But here is the part that will keep you up at night if you think about it long enough:
If you choose to ignore fate — if you take the road less travelled, refuse the script, forge your own path — how do you know that choosing to ignore fate wasn’t the fate?
The rebel who refuses destiny is still inside the story. The person who tears up the map might be walking exactly the route the map described. You cannot escape a cage whose walls you cannot see. And fate, by definition, is the cage whose walls are never revealed.
This is not a paradox to solve. It is a paradox to hold.
The beauty of fate is not that it tells you what will happen. It is that it makes every choice feel significant — even the choice to reject it. Especially the choice to reject it. Because if fate is real, your rebellion is the most fated thing about you. And if fate is not real, your rebellion is the most free thing about you. Either way, the act of choosing matters.
It All Comes Down to Attitude
Here is what the story in the bar actually reveals, if you look at it long enough:
The atheist was not prepared to catch his luck. The hunters came — the window opened — and he survived. But he walked away having learned nothing. He filed the miracle under “coincidence” and closed the drawer. The luck hit him at full force and he skimmed the surface of what it could have given him.
The priest saw fate where maybe there was none. But the seeing itself changed him. He carried the story differently. He told it with wonder. Whether God sent those hunters or not, the priest’s posture toward the event gave it weight and meaning that the atheist’s posture discarded.
And this — this is the actual lesson:
Luck and fate are different words for the same question:
what is your attitude toward the things you cannot control?
With luck: you cannot control whether the window opens. You control whether you are prepared to climb through it.
With fate: you cannot control whether the stone exists. You control whether you endure what is written on it, or ignore it and carve your own.
Both reduce to the same muscle. Both ask the same thing of you. Not what happened, but what did you do with what happened. Not was it luck or fate, but were you ready, and did you choose.
They prepare like it’s luck. They endure like it’s fate.
This is not two strategies. It is one posture, facing two directions. And learning that posture — learning to stand ready for what you cannot predict and stand firm under what you cannot avoid — might be the only thing worth learning in a life.
Back at Camp
The atheist is alive. The priest is in awe. Neither has changed the other’s mind. They will argue about this until closing time and then walk out into the cold together.
The question is not which one was right about the hunters.
The question is: the next time the blizzard comes — and it will come — which one will be standing at the glass when the window opens? And which one will have the posture to walk through it, whether the path was chosen or written?
“Some of what you are feeling is yours to change. Some of it is not. The reading is most useful when you can tell which is which.”
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